Higher Paddy Arrivals in Mandis Defies Low Production Estimates

In view of depleting stock of Rice in the country due to deficient rains and decline in output, the ASSOCHAM has cautioned that prices may increase and reach boiling point. As per Govt. estimates, production could decline slightly from 90.86 million MT during 2014 to 90.61 million MT this year. The decline in the output is mainly attributed to yield loss induced by deficient rainfall, long dry spells and early withdrawal of monsoon in many places. 

However, during September-October, 2015, Paddy arrivals in the Mandis were higher as compared to arrivals during the corresponding period of last year. It can be seen from Table below that significant increase in the arrivals has been registered during September and October as compared to last year’s figure.

Month
2014
2015
Change
September
739978.98
829521.4
89542.4 (12.10%)
October
10713649.5
12177276.5
1463627(13.66%)
Total
11453628.48
13006797.9
1553169.42(13.56%)
Source: Agmark


During the 2015 season, Mandis in Punjab (Baghapurana, Sirhind), Uttar Pradesh (Vishalpur) and Haryana (Jakhal, Ladwa, Nissing) have registered top arrivals.  While in 2014 higher arrivals were recorded in Mandis of Punjab (Zira, Talwandi Bhai, Mehal Kalan), Uttar Pradesh (Pilibhit), Haryana (Jakhal) and Tamil Nadu (Manachanallur) in September-October. 

Keeping above in mind, we do not expect an immediate escalation in prices of the Rice. However, global market scenario could also impact the prices in India.

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